It’s a misconception that, because the aviation industry contributes to just two percent of global CO2 emissions, reducing our flight consumption shouldn’t be a priority. Plus, this two percent figure refers only to the heating effects of CO2 emissions on the planet; in reality, non-CO2 emissions released by aviation also contribute to global warming, putting the total emissions figure closer to six percent.
When you consider that in 2018, just one percent of the global population was responsible for half of all aviation emissions, the impact that flying has on global warming seems even more unjust.
But, if aircraft were more fuel-efficient, would flying no longer be a big deal? The German Aerospace Center (DLR) has designed new software that uses AI-based technology to simulate airflow conditions. Stefan Görtz, head of the Center for Computer Applications in Aerospace Science and Engineering at the DLR, explains how the AI models will “very accurately simulate the airflow for various situations encountered in flight operations,” allowing them to see how design changes impact fuel consumption. The AI model can “make many rapid predictions,” saving time and money in contrast to traditional methods of analysing aircraft fuel efficiency.
“Efficiency improvement doesn’t necessarily lead to emissions reductions”
RESET spoke with Finlay Asher, an aerospace engineer and Co-Founder of Safe Landing, a global community of aviation workers who act from within the sector to rapidly reduce the climate impact of air travel.
While it’s clear that more efficient aircraft reduce the amount of fuel an aircraft needs for one flight, “efficiency improvement doesn’t necessarily lead to emissions reductions,” Asher explains. “Aircraft today are a lot more efficient than aircraft in the past. But more efficient aircraft accelerate air traffic growth — it’s called the rebound effect — so historically these improvements have led to emissions growth.”
Essentially, even if we make an aircraft 20 percent more efficient and save 20 percent fuel, the reality is that we’ll use the saved fuel on other flights. The aviation industry is projected to grow by 4.3 percent per year — and efficiency improvements will only speed up this sector’s growth.
Asher also points out the danger of relying on an AI-based solution, due to the high energy requirements of artificial intelligence. “If the energy consumption of AI and the IT sector more broadly continues to grow at a rate that cannot be matched by building renewable energy, this will lead to more fossil fuel use and greater emissions.”
Governments must set carbon budgets to limit aviation’s growth
Much noise has been made about so-called Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), a jet fuel made from waste materials such as used cooking oil. But Asher points out that it’s not feasible to scale SAF to meet our aviation demands, “especially if aviation is competing with AI data centres for low-carbon electricity.”
Contrail avoidance — avoiding certain parts of the sky to mitigate the impact of warming condensation trails — is one way to rapidly reduce the climate impact of aviation without flying less.
But, an actual solution is for governments to set carbon budgets that stipulate how much carbon the aviation industry is allowed to use. “In this scenario,” Asher points out, “efficiency improvements would then mean that you can fly more within that budget. And if we were treating [global warming] like an emergency, that’s what we’d be doing.”
